MAJOR BLIZZARD CONTINUES TO POUND MIDWEST

A major blizzard is continuing to wreck havoc across all of North Dakota, most of South Dakota, and western Minnesota. Most roads across North Dakota are closed due to near zero visibility. This includes I94 between Jamestown, ND and Fergus Falls, MN and all of I29 in North Dakota. Many state highways are also being closed in this region with many more closures expected as the storm progresses. There are too many areas affected to be able to go in to much detail so i will just say a blizzard continues for ALL of North Dakota, all of South Dakota except for southeast South Dakota, and western Minnesota. This storm has effectively shut down the entire state of North Dakota. The windchill at Grand Forks at 11:00 was -44F. Winds will continue to gust to as high as 50 mph, with the possibility of locally higher winds. Northern Minnesota is looking at anywhere from 10-18 inches of snow with some places already receiving almost 9" and more heavy snow to come. There is a decent chance for some places to pick up 2 feet of snow, especially in the arrowhead of Minnesota. Although blizzard warnings are not in effect for these areas (the Twin Ports area is under a bilzzard warning) there are times when these places could see near whiteout conditions. Central Minnesota could see up to a foot of snow including the cities of St Cloud, Willmar, Sauk Centre, and Hinckley. Anywhere south of this line will see lighter amounts with the Twin Cities picking up 3" at the most on the north side, 1-2" on the south side, a dusting to an inch south of the cities.

MAJOR WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY

A major winter storm will affect a large area of the upper midwest this weekend. Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and even Blizzard Warnings have all been posted for large portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Areas of South Dakota, eastern North Dakota, and the northern half of Minnesota could see up to a foot or more of snow by the time the system pulls away with northeast SD, eastern ND, and western MN having the potential to see sustained winds of 35 mph resulting in blizzard conditions. The area that looks like it is going to take the hardest hit from this storm is the Arrowhead of Minnesota where there is the possibility to see a foot and a half of snow by Monday Morning along with possible blizzard conditions. For us here in the Twin Cities it looks like we could see anywhere from 1 inch in the south metro to 4 inches in the north, with snow totals increasing the farther north and west you go. In the Twin Cities we will start out with a cold rain in the morning with a transition to snow by noon as a powerful cold front plunges through the area dropping temps from above freezing in the morning to near or below zero by morning on Monday. Winds will be a problem throughout the region and as the temps dip closer to subzero, windchills will become an increasingly bigger problem. Will update as the system unfolds...

Update on Upper Midwest snowstorm

A potent winter storm is still anticipated from tonight thru Wednesday covering areas from South Dakota and Iowa east through Michigan and Ohio. A large area could see storm total snowfall in excess of 6 inches extending from Minnesota and Iowa east in to Michigan. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for much of the mentioned area and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and much of southern Wisconsin. Along with the snow, some areas in Iowa and Illinois could see freezing rain with accumulations possibly exceeding 1/4". Although it is hard to see exactly where the freezing line will be, it looks like the southern half of Iowa and southern 2/3 of Illinois will see mostly rain with some snow mixing in late. The snow should be over for the western half of the area by Tuesday afternoon, and the rest of the area between Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will update more as the storm develops.

Possible significant snow Monday and Tuesday

Thanks to Beau G. for pointing this out. WRF and GFS have been showing a large winter storm slamming Iowa, southeast Minnesota, southern half of Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and Michigan with a half foot or more of snow possible. Latest runs by the WRF are pushing this area of precip farther north in to the southern half of Minnesota, most of Wisconsin, northern Iowa, and Michigan. Looks like from the Twin Cities north could pick up to 5" inches (although the NWS is only calling for 1") and areas south of the Twin Cities could see over 6" if the models pan out. The one thing i am kind of skeptical about is that the area of precip the WRF shows just explodes between 12z and 18z which i dont think is really going to happen, i think it is more of a glitch in this run. waiting for the GFS to update and will post more later...

Update on weekend Alberta Clippers

Still looks like east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin is going to get hit by an Alberta Clipper Friday night. The NWS is saying 2-4 inches are likely but the latest GFS and WRF are pulling the system farther west and bringing down the precip that the storm produces. Someitmes the afternoon runs tend to do this for whatever reason so we will check the morning runs for both the GFS and WRF and also check out the RUC. However, right now im going to go with what i said yesterday with storm total snowfall of 2" at most (although i will be hoping for more). Even if we dont get much snow tomorrow night, we will have another shot at some snow with another clipper sweeping through Sunday night and Monday morning. Again, the models have played down this system in the afternoon runs, earlier runs had this system pumping out up to 5" of snow by noon Monday. We'll just have to wait till tomorrow morning and see. I will post another update tomorrow morning.

Snow in the forecast, then cold

Looks like we will have a chance for some light snow Friday night and Saturday although i dont see it being anything big. My thinking is that it is going to be 1/2 to maybe 1" of snow with a quick clipper system coming from NoDak and moving down in to Illinois. Doesnt look like it will be anything big, i would see at the very most
2" but i think it will be around an inch. Im suprised to see the NWS having a 60% chance of snow for this system since it isnt a big one and it is still a few days out. Then, the GFS is showing another bigger clipper heading in the same general direction moving thru Sunday night and Monday. Although this is still 5 days out, if things dont change too much we may see 3-5 inches of snow here in the Twin Cities. After this system moves out we will briefly warm up in to the 30's but the GFS shows a big polar push southward by the end of the 10 day period. We all know that when the GFS goes beyond 180 hours it goes crazy, but the trend for 6/7 day period also shows overnight temps getting gradually colder each night and this area of colder temps. moves farther south each night. so, IF the GFS holds up we could very well see subzero highs by the end of next week (starting around Dec 12th and going till who knows when) and this cold push could extend well in to the central plains and east in to the Ohio River area. Now, like i have said before, this is a long time out and things will change but the models are already trending towards a major cool down. Check back for updates...

First snowfall of season

We got our first snowfall that has actually stuck around for more than a day here in the Twin Cities. About 1/2 inch to maybe an inch fell Saturday night and Sunday morning. We got a really brief clip of the storm that dumped up to 12 inches southern Wisconsin, northern Illinoius, and the LP of Michigan. Doesnt look like much is going to happen any time soon, GFS showing a pretty quiet pattern for the first 10 days of December but that can always change. Maybe another inch or two Wednesday night if we are lucky, otherwise no big storms are brewing anywhere that i have seen.