Sunday, April 4, 2010

It's that season again! 4/5/10 Chase FCST

Finally a real setup. Models have been all over the place with the system that is expected to come through the plains tomorrow. However, I'm taking the latest run more to heart. The GFS and WRF have finally come to somewhat of an agreement for tomorrow afternoon. While neither models completely erode CINH before 00z, both show a large of significantly weakened inhibition over southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. Everything looks to be in place for a decent setup IF (and I stress IF) we can get precip/clouds to clear out of the target area soon enough allowing sufficient destablization during the day. Models show at least 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE across the area mentioned above with a great amount of shear along and north of a warm front that is expected to move north in to southern/central Iowa tomorrow afternoon. Gonna want to stay close to that front as I dont know what the triggering mechanism will be further south. Since Iowa/Nebraska are closer than Missouri I'm content with just playing the warm front action. The downside if the storms fire is they will be hauling ass. Storms today were moving at 45-50 mph and I expect those same speeds tomorrow. For now the current target is Clarinda, IA.

EDIT: Didnt feel it was worth writing up a new post. Target is still Clarinda, IA. Also wanted let everyone know I will be streaming later today. Be sure to check it out at tornadovideos.net/live

1 comment:

Timothy said...

Good luck Dean, hopefully there'll be some nice storms near that warm front Today and again on Tuesday.