It's that season again! 4/5/10 Chase FCST

Finally a real setup. Models have been all over the place with the system that is expected to come through the plains tomorrow. However, I'm taking the latest run more to heart. The GFS and WRF have finally come to somewhat of an agreement for tomorrow afternoon. While neither models completely erode CINH before 00z, both show a large of significantly weakened inhibition over southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. Everything looks to be in place for a decent setup IF (and I stress IF) we can get precip/clouds to clear out of the target area soon enough allowing sufficient destablization during the day. Models show at least 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE across the area mentioned above with a great amount of shear along and north of a warm front that is expected to move north in to southern/central Iowa tomorrow afternoon. Gonna want to stay close to that front as I dont know what the triggering mechanism will be further south. Since Iowa/Nebraska are closer than Missouri I'm content with just playing the warm front action. The downside if the storms fire is they will be hauling ass. Storms today were moving at 45-50 mph and I expect those same speeds tomorrow. For now the current target is Clarinda, IA.

EDIT: Didnt feel it was worth writing up a new post. Target is still Clarinda, IA. Also wanted let everyone know I will be streaming later today. Be sure to check it out at tornadovideos.net/live

Some big news and a new pic

It's official. I'm happy to say I will be streaming my chases live through tornadovideos.net and also have them market my video to news stations. It will be nice to get a little $$ back for my chasing. I'm not exactly sure how they have their website setup for getting to the streams, but I will figure it out and post it. Make sure to check it out as the more viewers I get on my stream and the longer they stay on it the more money I get. Really looking forward to 2010 and it can't come soon enough! Thanks to Heidi Farrar for helping me out with all the info and also to Andrew Butler for giving them my name and also the info!

Now for the pic. I went down to downtown Minneapolis after work on Friday night hoping to get some cool shots with all the fog around. The fog right at the surface wasn't cooperating but just above the surface it got very dense. Anyways, here's the one pic I was proud of:

First WTF?!? day of the season

So as most weather nerds know already there was a long track tornado in western Oklahoma today. Andy Gabrielson of Luverne, MN who I have chased with a few times caught some great footage of the tornado near Hammon, OK in the later afternoon. Bart Comstock also got some great video and both have some of their footage playing on TWC so congrats to both on bagging the tornado and getting the footage on several news outlets. This was a day that noone really expected, and the chasers that did go for it were pretty skeptical. Temps barely breaking 60, dewpoints barely breaking 50, and models showing far less than par helicities over the area that had the tornado. For some chasers and wx nerds here in Minnesota and Wisconsin this might sound somewhat familiar. August 19th, 2009 had SOMEWHAT of a same setup. Relatively cool temps and low instability. While there were many differences between 8/19/09 and today, cool core nature and low instability dynamics are obviously major factors. MLCAPE values were ~500-750 j/kg (8/19 here in MN MLCAPE were around 200-300). The forecast models were showing the helicity today being pretty low, definitely not what you would expect for a long track tornado. The forecasted helicities for 8/19 in MN were pretty big. While I can't be 100% sure about this since I am no expert but I'm guessing that for today the models were neglecting to pick up on on the localized shear just to the east/northeast of the center of the low which is where the tornado touched down. I don't know how strong this low was since I wasn't really paying attention, but regardless the shear will be maximized in the area mentioned above. Couple strong shear (eventhough no one knew it was there) with just enough instability and you get what we had today. There was someone at ST who said they drove though 1.5" hail in the core of the storm so it's possible a brief tornado would've touched down with even less instability, but nothing like what actually happened. Another amazing thing is how good the visibility was today given that it was a cold core event. Days like today are the reason we chasers go out on days that don't look good because every once in a while it will really pay off. Also just goes to prove that there doesn't need to be a tornado watch or even warning (severe t-storm warning for that matter) before you get a tornado. It is also very important to note that this storm did not look good at all on any level or any scan. There was no way to know what it was about to do because it was so far away from any radar site and at that distance you can't see the lower levels of the storm. It had no couplet on velocity, no hook, no organization all on radar, and tops only ~30k ft. Nothing about this setup looked good except the storm itself, which is ultimately the most important thing. I think it was great listening to TWC and listening to them talk about how big of a role Spotter Network played in getting the warning out. I'll definitely have to keep these kinds of days in mind for the future. Congrats again to Andy, Bart, and everyone else who got the tor today!

I need a longer lens

Ha, I knew I'd get more than one entry here in February, albeit it 25 days apart but whatever. Headed down to Red Wing last Monday around 1:00 to see if the eagles were out. They were, but my kit 80-300mm just doesn't cut it. There was an incredible photo op as a lone eagle did two laps around the boats in the bay at Colvill park. Thing is is that it happened right after I pulled in and my camera settings were still set from low lights shots and didn't have to time adjust them and get setup before the big boy was gone. FUCK! Spent the rest of the day trying to take pics of eagles and hawks that are way too far away for my crappy kit lens. Still pretty fun though, pics dont break a trip that's main goal was just to get away for the afternoon. Good pics would've just been a bonus. After I got home and realized my pics turned out like shit I went on BH to look at new lenses and teleconverters. Unfortunately Olympus isn't like Nikon or Canon and doesn't offer a huge variety of lenses, but I think I found a decent lens for a decent price, a hell of a lot better than the one I have now. Won't be getting it until next offseason but I definitely want to get in to bird photography. The lens is an Olympus 70-300mm (equiv. 140-600mm due to the 4/3 system).
http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/504906-REG/Olympus_261057_70_300mm_f_4_5_6_Zuiko_ED.html#reviews
Combine that with a 2x teleconverter and we're talking some serious zoom. Probably have to pick up a monopod for it, but that will likely be my big purchase next offseason, unless another telephoto lens comes out for a decent price.
Anyways, here's the proof that I desperately need a better lens:

Moon pics. SDS is getting real bad

Jeez I've gotten some SDS real bad and didnt even realize it. It wasn't until Scott W. called me out at ST to make me realize how big of a douche I was being and how far I was taking it. Pointless bitching that ended up going nowhere. Not that I still dont feel the issue was worth discussing, but admittedly it was a bit much. Anyways, thanks to Scott for getting me to realize it. I need to find something else to fill my time during the winter. I guess the working out, hockey, school, work, and photography still somehow don't fill it up. I've become the exact thing I was mocking at the beginning of the winter. Epic fail.

Sooo... couple days ago I tried out some moon photography. Never done it before so it took me a little bit to figure it out. Some high cloud didn't help the situation, but eventually I was able to get some decent exposures. Wish I had a longer lens or I had gone out while the moon was a little closer but even still it was cool to try it out. One weird thing did happen to me. Thanks to F5 and ST (yes, ST) I think it's safe to assume what I saw was a pair of contrails move between me and the moon, effectively blocking out part of the moon while it moved from roughly SW to NE. Never seen anything like it before and probably wont see it again for a while. Either way it was cool/weird to see. Anyways, here's a few pics. Nothing great, but not bad.




The following pics are onces of the contrail just after it moved across the face of the moon (relative to my position). Unfortunately as it moved right in front I was waiting for a 25 second exposure to process on my camera. But was still able to manage these:

1/23/09-1/25/09 Slush storm and a pic

I don't have much to say about the storm coming through this weekend except that it is going to make a huge mess. And we really wont even get much in return (i.e. snow). Freezing rain tonight, a couple tenths of a inch at most but that may make for some good pics in the morning, although with gray skies and winds gusting to 25+ mph we'll see. Either way I'm going to wake up earlier to see if I can find anything. Rain tomorrow...turning everything to crap. Hopefully the cities continue to flood the outdoor hockey rinks after this storm, it would REALLY suck to have that season over already. Rain changing to snow Sunday..."Little or no accumulation." To be honest, I didn't know about this storm or the one in Iowa a couple days ago until I saw it on the news. Warm temps=rain or ice=boring. But with the warmer temps lately the Mississippi has opened up. Hoping to get down to Red Wing next week (probably Wednesday) before it freezes over again with the next surge of arctic air. Not sure if the eagles will be out, but it's worth a shot. If not, Red Wing is a pretty photogenic city and I know the area pretty well.

Here's a pic I took a couple days ago. The bottom of the icicle is a bit out of focus. The manual focus on my camera can be a real pain in the ass to deal with some times and as much as I hate to do it, I use auto focus quite a bit for that reason. Anyways, edited the tone curve. Lots of different things you can do with that, I think this turned out pretty good.

A little fun...

LOL, only one post in December...that's pretty pathetic I'll admit. But just never felt real motivated to keep posting updates on the Christmas storm since it was pretty well covered by the media. Anyways, came across a Facebook group that pretty much makes fun of all the stupid crap that gets posted on Stormtrack. Looking at some of the pics uploaded to the group I decided to make one of my own. Hey, every once in a while I have a creative spark. ;) That's pretty much all I have to say right now...Enjoy!