Wednesday, June 3, 2009

June 1st chaselog and bitching about the weather pattern

Chaselog: Outflow dominant CRAP!! I saw it coming though, the way the models broke down the CIN and the upper levels winds far away from the instability we knew better than to head out. But one of these days we will get a surprise. I took a couple pics, hardly anything worth posting. Lots of people out there though, mostly to our east in Missouri, we ended up in southeast Nebraska and even dipped down in to Kansas for a few minutes. We core punched most of the storms since there wasnt much danger in it given the setup. Got some hail, quarter size at best. The most interesting part of the day was on the way back home watching the supercells in western KS/NE. One of them was a west moving, left turning tornadic sup. The radar loop from Goodland for this event was unreal, it will definately without a doubt make a phenominal case study. Another sup to the north in NE fired, died, then reformed farther south and went on to become TOR warned (and tornadic I believe too) but unlike the storm to its southeast, this storm was moving south/southwest. Eventually something triggered more storms in the area which for a while also looked supercellular on radar. All the while a squall line was moving north towards these supercells. Eventually all the storms met and the sups got ingested in to the MCS and from the loop from GLD you could still see the motion of the sups in the MCS after they got ingested. It was friggin sweet to watch. I wonder what it would've looked like if there had been a time lapse of it all. One of the coolest things I've seen....

Anyways, the pattern the models are showing for us up here looks like complete shit, and not much rain. At this point I dont even care if we get storms, we just need some rain. Even with the active winter Minnesota had, east central MN got dryslotted with most of the winter storms which drastically cut down the amount of snow we received and with May being so dry, things are not good up here. The GFS does show some rain coming through early next week, but even still it doesnt look like much. I guess one positive is that the highs are only going to be 65-70 most days next week which should help keep the fire conditions from getting wildly out of control. Maybe its time to start chasing wild fires instead of storms for us since Minnesota is obviously not going to give us a storm season this year, and I'm sick of driving nearly all day for chases that yield low potential. Put a knife in it, storm season 2009 is a BUST!!

I may post some pics/vid from the chase on Monday, but that's a lot of work for some pics of a crappy storm.

6 comments:

Timothy said...

Dean...I as you know was hoping for things to change...But I officially gave up on that possibility last weekend. It's done! Maybe just maybe will get one active day around MN during the next three months, but even that appears to be a stretch right now. I'm a lil worried that the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior could see some winter precip either Sunday Night/Monday given the forecasted 850 mb temps around zero degrees C! I guess alot of that will hinge upon evaporative cooling and whether or not it's strong enuf or not? What a whacked out Spring!

Midwestchaser said...

I know it, I cant stand it. Looking at the 10 day GFS, I dont see many days above 70 in the next 10 days. WTF is up with that? I guess we can only hope for something to change.

Andrew said...

Oh never fear, that ever dependable long range GFS is coming to our rescue at about 300 hours!

'Course it's been doing that for the last 3 weeks... at 300 hours.

It's over...

Midwestchaser said...

Maybe we'll finally get something around July 3rd or 4th...when everybody is busy with family celebrations is when we're going to get the one tornado day in MN in 2009.

Actually Sunday isn't looking bad in NE/IA, but of course I have to work... so yea, f you mothernature!

mnwxchaser said...

I wouldn't totally flake out on 2009 yet. Averages are not accidents. Drufke and I have scored a lot of great chases in August out in the central Dakotas over the years. No V2, no Spotter Network leeches, no tour groups, and most of the deep pocket chasers have given up for the year. Sounds good to me.

Midwestchaser said...

I agree Bill, I've seen some good setups in July and August, but every day that goes by is one less day of summer vacation for me and one less day I will be able to chase. School starts around August 15th, I dont want to see Minnesota's severe season start August 14th. Plus every day that goes by without severe weather is another day upper level temps get warmer and the cap gets harder to break. I've seen enough cap busts and subsequent sunburns. ;)