Friday, May 8, 2009

You don't see this too often

The only thing more rare than a PDS TOR watch is a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch, especially two at the same time for the same squall line. The weirdest part is that these were issued for a slight risk, not even a moderate risk. Intense squall line ongoing in Kansas and Oklahoma. Its not a huge line, but it will be crazy where it does hit. Bet there is a nice shelf on it! The watch text and a couple radar grabs below:



PDS Severe Thundestorm Watch 266:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS

DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW ECHO THIS MORNING AND RACE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST AR. HIGH INSTABILITY AND RATHER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THAT A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.



PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF KANSAS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IN WAA AREA ALONG SRN FRINGE OF UPR DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING ESE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS. COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY RICH MOIST INFLOW...DEEP EML...AND SEASONABLY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION ONCE CELLS FORM. ALTHOUGH A RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST DURING EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...SFC-BASED CIN AND LIKELIHOOD FOR NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS ONCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SUGGEST THAT MAIN SVR THREAT EARLY-ON WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL. SIZABLE DCAPE SHOULD FOSTER SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD-PROPGATING MCS...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND/HAIL



Base Velocity from Tulsa:















Radar from Tulsa:

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