Saturday, April 25, 2009

4/26 Surprise day in MN/IA?

Thanks to the guys over at for catching my attention about tomorrow, I hadn't even noticed it. So, the helicities look awesome, nice jet streaks, dews look good assuming that nothing happens to the return, but we are supposed to be under clouds/rain pretty much all day. However, GFS shows a little area of clearing across SW/SC Minnesota later in the afternoon (hopefully its not post-frontal) so if that happens and we get a little heating, we may have just enough instability to spark off a storm. If that happens, watch out! But, if we dont get any heating, all these nice dynamics are just a waste. But, I'll stay semi optomistic, both GFS and WRF show LI's getting down to -2 by afternoon and GFS shows MLCAPE around 1000 joules for southern MN, which, when combined with mostly uncapped air, should be more than adeqaute to get something going. But, I have seen the ill effects of uncapped air, and all you get is a giant blob which is the fear of many about tomorrow. Will be keeping a close eye on satellite, and if it looks good, it will be my first official chase of '09 (yes, I did attempt to chase the sub-severe line in east central Minnesota yesterday...and failed, but that's a different story). Eyes to the skies tomorrow, work till 2:00 but after that, anything goes.

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