Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Possible severe wx this week?

Right now it seems there is the possibility of some severe weather later in the week for us here in the upper Midwest after a LOOONG winter. However, the GFS (Good For Shit) and WRF (What The Fuck?) models have been very consistent at being inconsistent. Neither have any handle on what this pattern is going to do. Needless to say we will see a warm up throughout the week, but at this point that's about all we really know. Both models show temps close to 80 on Thursday and Friday with dewpoints climbing to the mid to upper 50's by Friday. But, with the gulf not open yet, and the transport of that moisture being relatively slow, I really doubt the return of the moisture by Friday, atleast to the extent the models show. However, if we can get that kind of return, it could yield CAPE to over 1000 j/kg which is sufficient for this time of year. The thing is, shear doesn't look to be the greatest if this setup actually happens. Probably just some hailers at best. Will it be enough to get me to call in for the day off from work? We'll see. We need the models to actually agree on something before we make any plans.

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