Tuesday, December 23, 2008


It seems like every season a different product of all the models goes on crack. Whether it is moisture, isntability, shear, whatever, at one point or another all the models are going to blow a product WAAAY out of proportion. This winter season, it looks like it is the precip product. We have had many snow events (i wouldnt call them storms) this year already and the models have overhyped the totals on pretty much every event. Yesterday was a perfect example. Models showed 4-5 inches for much of central and southern Minnesota, but looking at the reports for last night's snowfall most of the area saw 2-3 inches with a few isolated 3-3.5 inch reports but nothing over 4". This isnt the only time this season this has happened. Last weekend the models were showing up to 8" possible here in eastern Minnesota. How much did we actually get? ~4", just enough to have warranted a winter weather advisory, not the winter storm warning that was issued for the entire area. Further west they received even less but were still in the winter storm warning. Now this is not a knock on the NWS, there is no way to know if the models are going to pan out this time and be on crack the next. This is just my theory (and rant) about how the models like to lie. So, for the rest of the season, until i see something different, i am going to take whatever the models show for precip and cut it in half, that will roughly be what we will actually end up getting.

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