Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Souther Plains severe weather discussion from 2/10/09

So just a quick recap of Tuesdays storms since my mindset is now officially in chase mode. Anyways, the SPC issued a moderate risk for severe weather for the eastern half of Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and western Arkansas (extreme southeastern KS may have also been in there, I'm not sure but it doesnt matter since nothing much happened there anyway) including a 15% hatched TOR risk. Unfortunately I was at lecture during the beginning of the event so I cant really say when things started firing or how good it looked early on. All I know is that the SPC issued an MD mentioning the potential for a categorical upgrade to a HIGH risk for the area mentioned above, but that never happened, most likely not enough confidence things would go. I got home around 3:40 and watched the event until I had to go to work at 5:00. I turn on GR and pick out the best cell to watch on radar, which turned out to be the storm that went through Payne county, OK. The first thing I notice is a huge honkin hook echo. I wait for another radar scan to see if this hook is for real, it definately was. I start polling GR in order to bring up the last few updates and this thing had a hook on it for quite a while. Below are some radar grabs from GRlevel3 from 3:26 pm CST to 3:47 pm CST:

Upper Right: Base velocity 1 Lower left: base velocity 2 bottom right: Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL)

I watched this storm up until I went to work. After I was at work a storm slammed Lone Grove, OK (roughly 1 1/2 hours south of OKC). Unfortunately 4 fatalities have been reported along with dozens of injuries. I havent seen any pics of the damage from Lone Grove but I'm guessing that the tornado was a rather violent one (although the tornado reportedly hit a trailer park which as we all know does not need a strong tornado to devastate it). Even with only 4 tornadoes reported and 121 reports including wind and hail, I still dont consider this a bust, atleast for Oklahoma, I do consider it a bust for everywhere else in the MOD risk, the MCS is nowhere near what was expected. But for Oklahoma I think the MOD risk and the 15% TOR risk verified, but we will have to wait for damage assessments before we make a final call. Anyways, this sounds more like an armchair chase report (SDS is getting real bad...) but I thought this event was worth mentioning and I wanted to share those radar grabs. Feel free to leave a comment with your opinion.

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