Looks like there is a a pretty decent shot at some severe weather in southwestern IA and eastern NE. The SPC has a 5% TOR risk with a 15% hail/wind in their 1z outlook. I didnt read the text but I took a look at models earlier and the area highlighted by the SPC is the same area that shows an area of 500 j/kg of MLCAPE. Definately not photogenic storms with highs only getting in the upper 50's to near 60 but helicity values look insane for a pretty good part of the area so it will be interesting to see how this event plays out. The SPC has also issued a 5% hail/wind risk in to central MN and western WI. Although its not much, Im sure its pretty unheard of. Eventhough its unlikely, there is a small chance of a February chase in Minnesota! I will be keeping an eye out for any storms in a close area to the cities. Instability looks really weak for anywhere north of the SLGT risk area but helicity looks to be better farther north. Anyways, not much hope but still will be keeping an eye out since I have no work or school tomorrow.
Also, let me know if you want a copy of my chase vid. I will be making the DVD's tomorrow and mailing them this week.
Monday, February 9, 2009
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Hey Dean, only a light coating of ice here in West Duluth Monday Morning, then just rainy with up to one half inch so far...Still raining at 5 PM and 35 degrees. I guess over the hill in Duluth around .15" of ice accumulated in spots...So yea, no-where near what was expected
I kinda figured it wasn't going to be as big as expected after the Duluth cancelled the freezing rain advisories south of Duluth, that's never a good sign. I wonder if the storm panned out in the Fargo and Grand Forks area.
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